Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo suggests that Apple might encounter a significant dip of up to 15% in iPhone shipments, attributing this decline to various factors, including the lack of compelling features in the iPhone 16 upgrade. Recent reports indicate that Apple has initiated adjustments to its annual iPhone shipments, with a substantial decrease projected across the year.
In a Medium post by TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, insights from supply chain surveys indicate that Apple has scaled down its shipments of critical semiconductor components to approximately 200 million units. This reduction represents a notable 15% year-on-year decline, marking the most significant decrease among major phone manufacturers in 2024.
The projections indicate a 10% year-on-year drop in shipments for the iPhone 15 models and a 15% year-on-year decline for both halves of 2024 concerning the iPhone 16.
Kuo asserts that the iPhone is grappling with structural challenges, leading to a substantial decline in shipments. Factors contributing to this downturn include the emergence of a new paradigm in high-end mobile phone design and sustained shipment decreases in the Chinese market.
Interestingly, the anticipated shift in design is expected with the iPhone 17 rather than the iPhone 16. This evolution encompasses accommodating AI-driven experiences on smartphones and meeting the demand for foldable devices, although the latter may not materialize anytime soon.
The decline in the Chinese market is linked to Huawei’s resurgence and the increasing popularity of foldable devices among high-end users. Apple’s weekly shipments to China have reportedly experienced a year-on-year decline ranging between 30% and 40%.
Furthermore, Kuo predicts that Apple won’t introduce new models with “significant design changes” or a strong emphasis on designing for AI applications until at least 2025. He cautions that this delay is likely to impact Apple’s iPhone shipment momentum and ecosystem growth negatively.
While Kuo has forecasted iPhone sales drops for five consecutive years, the projected decrease for this year appears to be the most substantial year-over-year decline to date.
